Today, America's farmers produce food and fiber for 155 people in the United States and abroad. (American Family Farmers Feed 155 People Each- 2% Americans Farm.) In 1930, American farmers each fed 9.8 people in the US and beyond, when the world population was 2 billion. Today, the United Nations (UN) estimates a world population of 6.8 billion. In 2050, the UN predicts a world population of 9.1 billion, meaning a 30% increase in people to feed. Nearly all of the population increase will occur in developing countries.
However, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) predicts the world will need 70 percent more food by 2050. Combating poverty and hunger, increasing food production, using scarce natural resources more efficiently and adapting to climate change are the major challenges world agriculture will face in the coming decades, according to a report by the FAO.
Why Such a Huge Increase in Food Needs?
The FAO report states that around 70 percent of the world population will live in urban areas by 2050, up from 49 percent today, meaning fewer will raise their own food. As developing countries such as India become more affluent, their food choices change; as do the amounts of food available. As the economy improves in these countries, the daily caloric intake increases, hopefully moving more people out of food scarcity into adequate food sources. Populations with more financial resources increase meat intake, including eggs and dairy products. In addition more crops are being used for biofuels, which means a required net increase in crop production worldwide.
Today, about 2.1 billion tons of cereal grains are produced worldwide; an estimated 3 billion tons will be needed in 2050. Annual meat production will need to increase from 250 million tons to 470 million tons.
Available Land Resources
There is likely enough land resource around the world for additional production. About 80% of the needed increases in crop production in developing countries will likely be from increases in yields and cropping intensity and only 20 percent from expansion of arable land, according to the FAO.
Most of the land reserves are in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. The problem is that these lands are ecologically important for protection of the environment and preservation of natural resources including plants and animals. Plus, huge economic resources are needed to bring these lands into production.
The amount of land available to farm is finite, and continues to shrink with the demand for more livable spaces, growing trees to help manage greenhouse gases and preserve the world’s fragile natural resources. Therefore, the amount produced – the yield – on this land must increase even more than it has over the recent past.
Changes in Food Production
Until the last century, the focus was on raising enough food for one’s family. Most people had gardens and raised a few livestock. Excess was sold or traded to obtain needed goods. As cities became more prominent, people needed to purchase more of their food and clothing needs. Agriculture evolved into a system of marketing goods. Mechanization began, greatly increasing crop yields and the number of acres in production.
The United States is losing farmers every day due to the poor economy, pressures on land use and the inability to provide a sustainable income to support a family. Few small family farms (with annual sales less than $250,000) operate in the black; most have rates of return on sales and equity in the negative, according to the Structure and Finances of U.S. Farms Family Farm Report, 2010 Edition by Robert A. Hoppe and David E. Banker of the Economic Research Service of the USDA, July, 2010.
What are the Choices?
- Options must include increased use of technology including genetically modified crops to limit pest and disease damage and further increase yields.
- Education will go a long way toward teaching modern agriculture practices, stopping soil degradation, erosion, lack of biodiversity, increasing yields and identifying nutritious crops that do well in marginal areas. The Cooperative Extension Service is part of the land-grant University in each state and the United States Department of Agriculture. Extension has been teaching Americans and people around the world skills and knowledge of farming, food production, food processing, safety and storage. Funding for this education must increase if crop production can increase in developing countries.
- Water shortages and poor water quality in the US and around the world have a major impact on the ability to produce enough food. Much work needs to be done to increase the availability of water for crops and human consumption. In reality, contaminated water is a larger problem than inadequate food supplies.
- There are numerous issues worldwide on food transportation, processing, food storage and equitable food distribution. Innovations and use of technology are necessary to preserve more of the food that has been produced.
- Reducing the US dependency on foreign oil is a factor. Recent predictions of $5/US gallon of gasoline is a critical problem for farmers. Much farm equipment uses diesel fuel, which is more expensive. Reducing the need for oil as a fuel source world-wide is critical in solving the food production issues.
- Sustainability must receive high consideration. Sustainable agriculture practices include conservation and restoration of natural resources. Reducing agriculture’s footprint on the earth is vital.
- Currently, much farm land is being used to grow biofuels. While these are important and valuable, we must first ensure enough food is being raised and properly distributed. Several biofuel companies and many Universities are doing research on crops such as switchgrass that grow on marginal land of little use for food production.
Can the world produce enough food in 2050?
Without a doubt. The best answer includes a combination of education, modern technology, financial resources, government policies and personal commitments.
Valerie Prax - Valerie Prax recently retired after nearly 35 years with University of Minnesota Extension. She served as an Educator and Professor for 27 ...
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